| C | 219000 | 122 | Provide Technical Review and Recommendation | Impacts Analysis | The overall approach to Impacts Analysis involves conceptual modeling, statistical modeling, hydrodynamic modeling using Delft3DFM, ecological modeling, and other analyses to address ERTG uncertainties and determine anthropogenic impacts since the late 1800s. It also determines the portion of impacts attributable to the CRS and other anthropogenic stressors, the interactions of multiple factors, and the fraction still unattributable given existing data and methods. The late 1800s (Pre-Development Era), the 1930s, and the present (Modern Era) are being incorporated into the analysis and modeling work to inform attributions, and future-condition predictions are planned. Estimation of uncertainties in attribution due to systematic and random factors is also an important component of the work. Four primary categories of ERTG uncertainties are addressed by the research: predictive modeling, landscape principles, climate change, and sedimentary processes.
Five tasks are anticipated for FY22 and will be detailed in the Work Plan at the conclusion of the present project period after FY21 reporting is completed: Task 1, Factual baseline and tools for change analysis; Task 2, Water; Task 3, Sediment Budget; Task 4, Temperature; and Task 5, Macrohabitats. Clearly, uncertainties affecting the CEERP involve integrated processes and effects across these tasks, yet this structure is a useful heuristic for managing discrete aspects of the research. Researchers representing each of these tasks will participate in forums in the regional conversation on uncertainties convened by the AAs. As uncertainties are prioritized through the regional process during the course of the year, BPA may direct that more or less effort be given to specific, with commensurate alterations of the level of effort given to other tasks within the proposed cost.
At present, uncertainties identified by the ERTG that are amenable to investigation using the Estuary Uncertainty study’s statistical and modeling framework include: sedimentary processes, sediment placement, and wetland channel morphodynamics; fish movement, habitat connectivity (fish, prey), and organic matter flux/spatial distribution; water temperature (fish habitat quality); outcomes of tide gate design relative to restoration objectives and environmental dynamics; and climate change.
With regard to climate change, ERTG-identified uncertainties in regard to several subtopics can be addressed, pending regional prioritization of the research questions. Because climate change affects most uncertainties, potential topic areas for further investigation in FY22 are presented in a single list that integrates all tasks:
• Floodplain wetland plant species distribution shifts and invasions
• Effects on salt wedge structure and estuarine turbidity maxima
• Movement of sediment lateral to the mainstem Columbia River in the past, present, and future
• Historical, modern, and predicted wetland accretion rates; elucidation of drivers, feedback, and related dynamics
• Frequency and magnitude of hydrological events and their effects on wetland plant communities, primary/secondary productivity, and fish habitat connectivity
• Validation of the stepping stone model assessing the quality and size of habitat patches, and energetics/temperature/cost of fish movement
• Indirect effects of wetlands on the foodweb, i.e. organic matter and prey fluxes
• Consequences of decreased predictability of correlations between ocean indices, basin hydrology, and temperature
• Variable role of wetland plant communities and logs as friction in model floods
• Interactions: topography x reach x hydrological change; habitat area x reach; etc.
In summary, PNNL, PSU, and Cal-Poly are addressing research questions critical to regionally identified uncertainties with the potential to impact CEERP, using statistical, ecological, and physics-based modeling and an innovative study design to produce quantitative analyses with quantification of uncertainty, suitable for use as the basis for adaptive management decision making. The team is examining the role of landscape factors and spatial variation of biophysical processes along the estuarine gradient on water temperatures and primary productivity, which will inform how restoration/conservation considerations for climate change must vary by reach and site. | $404,235 | 67.41% | 11/01/2021 | 10/31/2022 |
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